The Contribution of Total Factor Productivity on Economic Growth in Selected Southeastern European Countries
Abstract
This paper delves into the impact of capital accumulation, effective employment, and total factor productivity (TFP) on the economic growth of five Southeastern European countries: Albania, Croatia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Slovenia. The examination is based on the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model and the Cobb-Douglas production function, which dissects economic growth into capital, labour, and productivity inputs. The analysis pays particular attention to the growth dynamics of North Macedonia over the entire period (1998-2019) and two sub-periods (1998-2008 and 2009-2019). The article seeks to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the primary drivers of economic growth in Southeastern European countries, emphasising the evolving roles of capital, labour, and productivity over time. Through a detailed analysis of these determinants, the study offers insights into the necessary policy actions to ensure sustainable long-term growth, especially in transition economies. The empirical analysis utilises the growth accounting framework and employs regression analysis to estimate the output elasticities of capital and labour inputs. The data analysis covers the period of 1998-2019, specifically focusing on two sub-periods to investigate shifts in growth drivers over time. Each factor's contributions are presented in absolute terms (percentage points) and relative terms (percentages) to provide a comprehensive understanding of their roles. The findings indicate that capital accumulation has been the predominant growth driver in most countries, especially Albania, Croatia, and North Macedonia. However, in Serbia and Slovenia, total factor productivity (TFP) played a more significant role, contributing substantially to growth. In North Macedonia, TFP showed strong contributions during 1998-2008 but declined sharply in 2009-2019, leading to increasing reliance on capital and labour inputs for growth. This study is valuable in emphasising the shift in growth drivers over time and highlighting the importance for Southeastern European countries to concentrate on productivity enhancements, innovation, and labour market reforms to sustain long-term growth. These findings provide significant insights for policymakers seeking to improve economic performance in transition economies.
Abstract
This paper delves into the impact of capital accumulation, effective employment, and total factor productivity (TFP) on the economic growth of five Southeastern European countries: Albania, Croatia, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Slovenia. The examination is based on the Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model and the Cobb-Douglas production function, which dissects economic growth into capital, labour, and productivity inputs. The analysis pays particular attention to the growth dynamics of North Macedonia over the entire period (1998-2019) and two sub-periods (1998-2008 and 2009-2019). The article seeks to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the primary drivers of economic growth in Southeastern European countries, emphasising the evolving roles of capital, labour, and productivity over time. Through a detailed analysis of these determinants, the study offers insights into the necessary policy actions to ensure sustainable long-term growth, especially in transition economies. The empirical analysis utilises the growth accounting framework and employs regression analysis to estimate the output elasticities of capital and labour inputs. The data analysis covers the period of 1998-2019, specifically focusing on two sub-periods to investigate shifts in growth drivers over time. Each factor's contributions are presented in absolute terms (percentage points) and relative terms (percentages) to provide a comprehensive understanding of their roles. The findings indicate that capital accumulation has been the predominant growth driver in most countries, especially Albania, Croatia, and North Macedonia. However, in Serbia and Slovenia, total factor productivity (TFP) played a more significant role, contributing substantially to growth. In North Macedonia, TFP showed strong contributions during 1998-2008 but declined sharply in 2009-2019, leading to increasing reliance on capital and labour inputs for growth. This study is valuable in emphasising the shift in growth drivers over time and highlighting the importance for Southeastern European countries to concentrate on productivity enhancements, innovation, and labour market reforms to sustain long-term growth. These findings provide significant insights for policymakers seeking to improve economic performance in transition economies.
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